After-all, RBI as an institution is way bigger than any individual. Yes, Rajan has done a good job in RBI's war on bad assets and crony capitalism but there is no reason to believe that his replacement will do any different. On the other hands, if the new governor leads to even slightly easier monetary policy, the market will get one more catalyst for a rally.
Sunday, June 19, 2016
WHY STOCK MARKETS WILL MOVE ON
I was in 2 minds about the conclusion of my thoughts on markets post Rajan till 30 minutes back. That is when I decided to go for a walk and by the time I was back, I was fairly certain about what I was going to write. It rained cats and dogs and it still is while I write this. So makes my job easier.
First things first – The only reason anyone should even fret about Rajan exit was because of its timing. It couldn’t have come at more uncertain time with market already bracing itself for the Brexit vote and some renewed uncertainty over the progress of monsoon.
If this was 2015 second half or first 2 months of 2016 when the stock market went through a cyclical bear phase, I wouldn’t have ben surprised by a 300 point Nifty fall. However, things are different now. This is a market in which smart money is so hungry for bad news (so that it gets an opportunity to buy cheap) that the first major correction (if any) will be lapped up by both hands.
The best example of what I am saying was the market’s reaction to the changes in P notes regulations, which the market forgot in a matter of 45 minutes. Last year, the market was making lower highs and lows on the day of good news. This year, the market is making higher highs and lows on the day bad news hits it. In stock markets, you don’t argue with the tape. It’s telling you something
So what makes me so bullish and comfortable on the state of markets? Let me go back to the opening para – the rains. The monsoon is THE MOST IMPORTANT trigger this year for us and if we get a normal monsoon, then you will find (with benefit of hindsight) that REXIT was a great buying opportunity.
Now, the next important trigger this week would be BREXIT. If
Britain decided to stay within Euro zone, all
markets are poised for a big rally and India would be part of that. If
however, the dreaded BREXIT does take place, then again I will repeat the same
point. If the monsoon is good, you will find that BREXIT was once in a lifetime
opportunity to accumulate stocks.
For tomorrow, trade with caution – Buy any significantly big dips in good stocks and be prepared for a mark to market of 10-15% and don’t be afraid to buy more if that happens. I don't see this market moving anywhere lower than 7800 in a worst case scenario. The way I see it, if we have a good monsoon, this market is on course to hit a new all-time high at some point in Oct-Dec quarter.
Disclaimer: The author of this article does not invest/trade in stock markets including derivatives. His only exposure to stock markets is via the stock options given to him by his employers as part of his compensation
Friday, June 3, 2016
SOME LESSONS IN LIFE FROM RAAMDEO AGRAWAL
I have started doing a new series – I go out and talk to some of the most successful investors but not necessarily about stocks and markets. I try to present the man (or woman) behind the face you see on CNBC-TV18. The personal traits, the lessons of life, the likes, the dislikes, the achievements, the regrets and everything else and then what lessons
So yesterday I went out and shot at the swanky and large office of Motilal Oswal financial services and spoke to the face of the company – Raamdeo Agrawal, someone who is one of the proponents of value and growth investing. These are some interesting takeaways that came out from this interview
1) Work on a solid foundation, rewards will come later: When asked what has been his biggest achievement, Raamdeo says completing his CA, even though it took time. He still rates the basic education as the most important stepping stone for his huge success
2) No excuses: Raamdeo grew up in a village with no electricity and a very humble background. But that didn’t stop him from dreaming big and constantly working towards achieving that dream
3) Enjoy your riches too and believe in giving: Raamdeo enjoys his life. He is an avid traveler. There are only 28 countries left in his bucket list and he will visit them over the next 5-10 years. He also believes in sharing wealth and does a lot of charity work which satisfies him a lot
4) Take care of your employees: The facilities for employees at Motilal Oswal rival that of some of the biggest MNCs. And they keep working on improving that. According to Raamdeo, it’s more important to retain talent than finding good talent and they go all out to make sure their employees are happy
5) Read, read and read: To be a successful investor or to be successful in general, Raamdeo believes it’s very important to read good books and treasure your collection of good books. Till this date, he has all the newsletters of Warren Buffet printed and hard bound and he keeps referring to them
6) No regrets: If you take a calculated decision and it goes wrong – so be it. There have been instances where he has sold stocks right at the point of a start of multi bagger cycle. But then, if he had taken an educated call to sell the stock, he won’t regret it but won’t mind buying it higher again if his conviction tells him so.
7) Price is last: For Raamdeo, price comes last. Most important is quality, then growth and finally price. His belief is that if quality and growth is sustained, price will have no option but to keep going up. The best example of this is Eicher Motors per Raamdeo.
You can catch the show all through weekend and once the Youtube edition is available, I will embed it on the blog. It was great learning and fun