BULLS BEWARE, BEARS HAVE THE KNIVES OUT

Thursday should reaffirm the extent of the bear market India is going through. I know a lot of people would think I looked at some other screen since the Sensex was up 400 points and the Nifty rallied 100 points. But to me the internals matter – and the internal that stood out yesterday was FIIs selling Rs 1278 cr in cash markets. This is more selling than they have done on really bad days.

I raised this point yesterday during my show on CNBC-TV18, before this data was out – if you are a bull you don’t want to see FII net sell figure on a day like yesterday, and that’s precisely what happened. So essentially, in a shallow market, the FIIs are now selling on any good day, and yesterday was as good a day as any with so many large caps rising 4-5% or more in certain cases.

Refer to my last post where I spoke of the market mayhem and raised the possibility of FIIs selling in the last remaining safe bastions. That’s starting to happen – so far FIIs have been protected with their investments in IT, Pharma and to a certain degree some FMCG names, but the currency is fast eating whatever limited gains they have made. And this is in a relative world, where the US markets are trading pretty close to all time highs and investors have options to park their money somewhere else.

Now, next week assumes extreme significance. The bears are in firm control and they have so much ammunition at their hand that any rallies like yesterday would give them fodder to feed on, in this case bull’s meat to feed on. Also, look at the options data in non conventional way – the way deep out of money August Puts have added Open Interest, yesterday clearly looks like another bear trap.

I know the market is deeply oversold and almost everyone is bearish and normally that’s the signal of the bottom. But the last stage of bottom formation is always the most painful and results in most wealth erosion for bulls. That may just be around the corner.

Disclaimer: The author of this article does not invest/trade in stock markets including derivatives. His only exposure to stock markets is via the stock options given to him by his employers as part of his compensation. All views expressed in this blog are my personal views and my channel does not subscribe to the same.

MAKING SENSE OF MARKET MAYHEM

So finally the market is capitulating. But what really is happening out there? Who is selling and what should the market be weary of?

The internal that would worry me the most is that FIIs have actually invested $12.7 bn in cash markets this year. And the Nifty is down 8% despite that. In fact the Dollar Nifty is down 16% year to date. Where exactly has this money gone and what happens if even 10% of this money has to go out?

Well let’s look at the Nifty internals. You would be amazed that only 8 Nifty stocks are in the green this year, but those who are have actually been money spinners. For example, at number 8 is ITC with 9% gains, HUL is up 12%, Dr Reddy’s 17%, Lupin 28%, Infosys 30%, Sun Pharma and TCS are up 40% and the biggest of them, HCL Tech is up over 50%

On the other end of spectrum, the 42 Nifty stocks that have fallen – 33 of them have fallen more than 10% - within that 15 have actually fallen over 30%, 7 over 40%, 2 over 50% and a poor soul by the name of JP Associates nearly 70%. And I am not going into the Nifty Junior and midcaps because you know what’s coming there.

So with some of the erstwhile FII favourites likes SBI, BoB, L&T, ICICI Bank decimated, the key concern should now be what happens to the likes of IT stocks and the pharma stocks. And if that has to happen, will it finally lead to an FII exodus. Keep in mind, even if this market was flat, an FII would have seen 8% erosion purely because of currency.

The other angle that’s scaring me is the absolute low levels of cash market volumes and hence the depth of the market. 96% turnover is being generated in the derivative market with lion’s shares coming out of Index options, which has become a gambler’s den. Even if someone has to sell $10 m of stocks, that would lead to big price damage. Factor this, on Friday, FIIs sold less than $100 m in cash markets, DIIs more than bought that and still the Sensex ended with near 800 point collapse.

And while the consensus is that this market is only headed down, that has been the consensus for some time now. And when a consensus trade is so right, sometimes the bravado of approaching the market with contra views an be painful, unless of course you have deep pockets and a really long term view. Somehow the internals of the market and most importantly the ticker is telling us that there is more to come.

Disclaimer: The author of this article does not invest/trade in stock markets including derivatives. His only exposure to stock markets is via the stock options given to him by his employers as part of his compensation. All views expressed in this blog are my personal views and my channel does not subscribe to the same.

WANT TO BE A GOOD TRADER ALONG WITH INVESTOR? LEARN FROM LIC

Intriguing headline right? LIC, the biggest institutional investor of Indian equities a savvy trader? Well that ladies and gentlemen is the fact and the institution has proved it so right with the biggest of blue chips – Infosys and this despite remaining essentially a large long-term shareholder. So what am I saying?

Let’s take a look at LIC’s investments in Infosys over the last 3 quarters and try to see what it is up to.

At the end of December 2012 quarter, LIC held 4.16 cr shares of Infosys representing 7.2% stake. By the end of March quarter, this was down to 3.42 cr shares representing 5.96% stake and in the just released June-ending quarter, its gone back up to 3.86 cr shares representing 6.72% stake. What’s the big deal you would ask?

The big deal is that by cutting its stake LIC part protected itself from that ill fated 22% fall Infosys had after Q4 results and by buying after that fall, it managed to participate in the rally that followed, especially the 10% thumbs up stock got after Q1 results. Let’s try to put some numbers here.

LIC sold 74 lakh shares between December to March. Stock moved between Rs 2700-2900 during that period– so let’s assume an average price of Rs 2,800 for that period. After Q4 numbers, stock collapsed to Rs 2,300. And with an average price of Rs 2,200-2,400 for the quarter, let’s take the average price of Rs 2,300 for the quarter in which LIC bought 44 lakh shares. And now of course, the stock is back to Rs 2,800

So just for those 44 lakh shares, LIC managed to sell at highs and buy at lows with a difference of Rs 500/share – that translates into Rs 220 cr of trading profit. Keep in mind LIC is a long term shareholder and would have paid no tax on the shares it sold and the shares it acquired last quarter for sure will again be held for long time.

Of course, LIC had its own compulsions last quarter as I had written here – it had to raise money for the plethora of PSU paper that hit the market, but let’s give credit where it’s due. It managed to play a counter consensus trade successfully for 2 straight quarters. And that’s the whole premise – even if you hold a share with a very long term horizon, sometimes a minor churn or tweaking in portfolios isn’t a bad idea

WHAT EXACTLY DO MARKETS THINK OF BEN BERNANKE?

This will be a short note as this is what’s there on top of my mind.

So markets are selling off because the fed chairman believes the US economy is recovering and hence by next year would not require the injection of liquidity. But the markets are sulking – and are throwing fresh tantrums like a kindergarten kid would if a toy has been taken away.

So what exactly do these financial markets players want? They just want easy money at near zero interest rates, so that they can play with these dollars in various markets with a knowledge that if they lose this money, the big daddy will give more – and if they make gains out of that, they will sound and look intelligent and take away fat bonuses, while a normal labourer/cobbler/driver fights inflation and works his normal 14-hour shift daily to earn his family a meal.

Make no mistake, the financial markets all around the world are in a mess. Gone are the days where fund managers would require hours and days and months of hard work to arrive at individual stocks that will generate alpha – Right now everyone from an FII to an insurance company to a mutual fund is a trader who can’t look beyond the next 3 months (with some exceptions of course).

The whole world had been watching for how the US bond yields had been moving. The US bond market is the savviest market of all asset classes. This market was for long telling us that Bernanke’s dollar printing has run its course. The market should have prepared for this event. What the bond markets had also been telling us is that we need real economy growth and not just dollar supply for markets to rally.

Now what about India? The Indian authorities are in absolute denial mode. It’s worse than an ostrich who drags its head into sand hoping the hunter hasn’t seen it (which by the way is a myth, ostriches don't do that). Last week, they approved hiking FII limit in Government securities (In a week when FIIs sold over $3 bn Indian Govt bonds) and yesterday they announced conducting an auction for G Secs. I mean, I really want to know what kind of drugs are some of them consuming.

Now while twitterati and BBM groups have been swamped with jokes on how India is back into the 1990s, yesterday a very respected economist raised a big red flag saying India is actually back into the 70s low growth, low employment rut.

The growth is sub 5%, currency is almost 60, we are producing millions of engineers and MBAs every year with no real jobs and there is very low likelihood of the economy bottoming out. Worse still, going by the recent cabinet expansion, it doesn’t look like economy is anywhere on top of Govt’s agenda.

There is a saying that dawn is closest when its darkest, unfortunately there is no way of knowing, how much darker can the night get in India right now.

HUL OFFER IS A WATERSHED MOMENT, DON'T TALK VALUATIONS HERE

The voluntary open offer from Unilever for shareholders of Hindustan Unilever is easily the most significant development for Indian market. Make no mistake, its way bigger than a petrol price decontrol, or allowing FDI in retail or anything where you may have heard lot more noise. What we should not do at this moment is to belittle this deal by talking about valuations, acceptance ratios and punting on what it means for other cash rich MNCs and their Indian arms.

Just think about it, Unilever is willing to put $5.4 bn cash to work, just to increase their stake in Indian arm to 75% and be rest assured, they won’t get all they want at Rs 600/share and they may at some point make a higher offer which we cannot speculate at this point. (By the way, the promoters of Saint Gobain and Fresenius Kabi should note this development and not dither over what is loose change)

What should an investor of HUL do? While the HUL stock is at life time high, this does not take away the fact that the stock would still rank as an underperformer if you invested in the stock 10 years back.

You will be amazed to know that despite all its massive outperformance in the last 3 years, only 3 index stocks have underperformed HUL over the last 10 years. While HUL is up 190% in last 10 years, only Hindalco, Reliance Infra and Ranbaxy have given lower returns if you take data from February 2003, which is when the great Indian bull market actually started.

During these 10 years, Sesa Goa has become 82 fold, Lupin 47 fold, Kotak Mahindra Bank a 40 bagger, and Axis Bank a 30 bagger. Ok, let’s agree that some of them have not been the part of index for 10 years and have only been added after significant outperformance. So look at peers, who have been in index for long. M&M is a 30 bagger, L&T a 15 bagger, Tata Motors 8 bagger and even the closest competitor ITC has been a 14 bagger. Of course all these stocks have had their triggers over last 10 years in terms of economy and individual company issues.

Unilever clearly is not doing this for charity, nor is it doing this because it thinks it owes it to shareholders. No way, it is doing that because it is betting on the much larger theme, which is the Indian consumption story. And while we may keep debating how expensive stocks look in the consumption basket, as the past bull market has shown, the market can make absolute mockery of near term valuations when it gets in the mood to reward a particular sector or a stock.

ANOTHER MNC DELISTING GONE SOUR

Are these MNC promoters coming out with a clear message? Give us your shares at our price, else we will short change you, and not even give you the current market price and the Indian merchant bankers will help us short change the Indian shareholders?

Since I got a lot of feedback on Fresenius Kabi, here comes the next important issue on the radar. Just look at how the minority shareholders of Saint Gobain Sekurit are being treated. Again, all of this is done within the letter of the law, but the spirit is nowhere to be followed.

Just a backgrounder – In 2012, the promoters of Saint Gobain Sekurit came out with a delisting offer and indicated a price of Rs 31/share as acceptable to them. The discovered price, to their horror was Rs 90/share and even at that price, not enough investors tendered and hence the company rejected the delisting. Of course, even the shareholders got greedy and may be Rs 90/share was not the right price for Saint Gobain but what they are getting now is clearly not the right value. 

Now look at what's happening. The same promoters have another company called Grindwell Norton (which is much bigger in size) and now they are merging the 2 companies. But the merger ratio leaves so much to be desired.

A simple stock price related swap would have meant 1 share of Grindwell for every 11 shares of Saint Gobain. Even in terms of sales, Grindwell is 9 times bigger than Saint Gobain. And in terms of market cap, Grindwell is 7 times Sanit Gobain. But look at the merger ratio – 17 shares of Saint Gobain are needed for a small mercy of 1 share of Grindwell Norton.

Simply put, if you have shares worth Rs 380 of Saint Gobain, you will get a share of Grindwell worth Rs 255. That’s a loss of 33%, technically the share of Saint Gobain is now worth Rs 15/share. It’s the same company, where the promoters were happy to delist at Rs 31/share.

And more importantly it does not end here. The merger process also involves merging 2 unlisted companies with Grindwell Norton and you don’t need knowledge of rocket science to know that these 2 companies should be promoter entities and look at the merger ratios here

For every 1 share of unlisted Saint Gobain Crystals, you get 2 shares of Grindwell Norton and for every 1 share of unlisted SEPR, you get 2.6 shares of Grindwell Norton. So technically, the assets of Grindwell Norton are being distributed among the shareholders of unlisted companies while the minority shareholders of the listed entity are being given the loose change.

In the listed Sanit Gobain Sekurit, the MNC promoters own 86% stake with no institution holding and the balance 14% stake is with small shareholders. In Grindwell Norton, promoters own 58%, has large institutional holding with both domestic mutual funds and FIIs listed as shareholders.

Do the promoters of Saint Gobain Sekurit have absolutely zero regard for the minority 14% shareholders of the company? It’s a 200 crore market cap company so 14% represents a princely sum of Rs 28 crore. Why can’t they be fair to these small investors? Or is this the new way of MNC promoters bullying small shareholders and telling them – it’s either our way or highway.

IS SEBI WATCHING THIS DAYLIGHT ROBBERY?

Fresenius Kabi! Rings a bell? It should, it was the first company that burst the bubble of MNC delisting hope story by opting for an offer for sale to reduce promoter stake. Basically, according to SEBI guidelines, promoters need to either cut stake to below 75% or delist the company. Fresenius Kabi had 90% promoter stake and was on top of the list of punters taking bets on top dollar delisting price.

Now take a look at the set of events. The stock first doubled from 85 in December 2011 to Rs 170 by April 2012 on hopes of deslisting. Then, the promoters opted for an OFS instead of delisting and the stock fell to Rs 80. The OFS took place at Rs 80 but what was interesting was that a large chunk of OFS was subscribed by 4 merchant bankers. RBS Merchant Bank subscribed 30.5 lakh shares, Macquarie bank 29.65 lakh shares, Morgan Stanley 25 lakh and Nomura another 23 lakh for a total of 1.08 crore shares.

Now this is not illegal, and at no point am I accusing any of the entities here but look at what the company is doing now. Its come out with a voluntary delisting offer with a floor price of Rs 130/share. I am not in the business of predicting these developments but if all these merchant bankers do tender at 130/share, that will go a long way in the company being delisted. Remember, with the current float of 19%, the company now only needs 9.5% stake to delist and keep in mind, it did an OFS of 9% to cut stake from 90% to 81%. Do the math here. Its far easier for company to accumulate 9.5% after having given 9% stake in an OFS to select entities than it was to garner 5% when the public float was 10%. And I won't be surprised if all those who were allotted shares in OFS actually do tender in delisting offer.

This stock was seen as undervalued at 180/share when delisting buzz was alive. Just imagine, what a daylight robbery it would be if indeed the promoters manage to delist the company at Rs 130/share. Is there anyone looking at the plight of minority shareholders? This is all being done within the law, but sometimes spirit of the law is ignored in just following the letter of the law.

My other fear is that once this delisting is through, this will provide perfect precedence to some other promoters on how to delist the company at throwaway prices.